Better ASSESSMENT PROCESS IS KEY

ADHD Overdiagnosis

Overdiagnosed or Overlooked- we need to rethink the approach!

ADHD Is Not Overdiagnosed. It Has Been Overlooked: Why the UK Must Rethink Its Approach

For decades, ADHD has been misunderstood as a narrow behavioural issue affecting children. Yet NHS data, international research, and lived experience all show something very different: ADHD is a brain–body condition with far-reaching impacts on health, education, employment, family life, public safety and the wider economy.

As Wes Streeting launches a national review into ADHD, autism and mental health services, it is essential that the conversation is grounded in evidence, not outdated assumptions.

Below is a full exploration of why better ADHD diagnosis and management is a national priority, with internal and external links to support clinical understanding, public education and policy reform.


ADHD Has Not Suddenly Become More Common, Diagnosis Is Finally Catching Up

Many claim that ADHD is being overdiagnosed. NHS data show the opposite.

  • ADHD affects 3–5% of children and 2–3% of adults, but adult diagnosis rates remain below 1%.
  • Women and girls are especially under-recognised due to masking, hormonal influence and non-stereotypical presentations.
  • More than 500,000 people are currently waiting for ADHD or autism assessment in England.

See our overview of current pathways:
Understanding ADHD Assessment in the UK

External sources confirming underdiagnosis:

Rising diagnosis does not mean overdiagnosis. It means the system is finally recognising people it previously ignored.


ADHD Is a Brain–Body Dysregulation Condition, Not a Behaviour Problem

ADHD affects the nervous system, endocrine system, autonomic function, sleep architecture, emotional regulation and metabolic health. It overlaps with:

  • Sleep disorders and insomnia
  • Hormonal problems, especially in women (PMDD, perimenopause, menopause)
  • Chronic pain, migraine and hypermobility
  • Gut problems and inflammatory disorders
  • Burnout, trauma and heightened stress sensitivity
  • Addictive behaviours and dysregulated reward pathways

Learn more about specific areas:
ADHD, Insomnia and Sleep Dysregulation
Female Brain Health and ADHD

Relevant external research:

ADHD cannot be treated as a standalone mental-health label. It is a multi-system health condition that requires integrated care.


Untreated ADHD Amplifies Risk Across Multiple Systems

Education

Students with ADHD face:

  • Lower GCSE attainment (around one grade per subject)
  • Two to three times higher risk of exclusion
  • Higher school absenteeism
  • NEET status at age 25: two to three times higher than peers

Employment and Productivity

Adults with untreated ADHD have:

  • 10–14% lower employment rates
  • 33% lower average income
  • Estimated workplace productivity losses of around £11 billion per year

For a deeper dive into how better management helps:
Why Shared Care Prescribing Improves Long-Term Outcomes

Family and Relationships

  • Parental depression three to five times higher
  • Around 80% of families reporting chronic stress
  • Divorce rates up to three times higher
  • Seventy per cent of adults with ADHD report significant relationship strain

Criminal Justice and Public Safety

  • ADHD prevalence in prisons: around 25% of adults and 30% of young offenders
  • Inmates with ADHD are eight times more likely to be involved in violent or disruptive incidents
  • Medication is associated with a 32% reduction in criminality in men and 41% in women (Swedish registry data)

External reference: ADHD, impulsivity and criminogenic risk

Physical Health and Mortality

Untreated ADHD is associated with:

  • Reduced life expectancy of four to nine years
  • Two to three times higher all-cause mortality
  • Three times higher suicide attempt rate
  • Twice the risk of type 2 diabetes
  • Fifty to sixty per cent higher obesity prevalence
  • High rates of sleep disorders and psychiatric comorbidity

External reference: UCL life expectancy study in adult ADHD


The Economic Case: ADHD Is One of the Most Costly Undiagnosed Conditions

Annual UK cost lines influenced by ADHD-related dysregulation (approximate figures):

Area Annual Cost
Sleep disorders £34–40 billion
Work-related stress £51 billion
Mental illness (NHS / societal) £60 billion / ~£300 billion
Musculoskeletal pain £5 billion
Type 2 diabetes £10–14 billion
Obesity £6.5–9.7 billion
Migraine and headache £1 billion NHS, up to £9.7 billion total
Alcohol harm £27 billion
Drug misuse £20 billion
Family breakdown £51 billion
School exclusion £2.1 billion

When ADHD is diagnosed and properly managed:

  • Estimated realistic yearly saving: around £1.8 billion
  • Theoretical maximum saving: up to £6.3 billion per year

Learn more about our integrated approach:
About Sanctum’s Integrated Brain Health Model


Why This Matters for Wes Streeting’s Review

The review must recognise that:

  1. ADHD is underdiagnosed, not overdiagnosed. Long waits and limited capacity inflate crisis demand.
  2. ADHD management is preventative medicine. It reduces risk in mental health, substance misuse, justice involvement, metabolic disease, accidents and family stress.
  3. Shared care is essential for continuity of treatment. Restricting shared-care prescribing would increase A&E attendance, worsen adherence and deepen inequality.
  4. ADHD requires integrated, multidisciplinary pathways rather than medication-only models.
  5. Diagnosis is not costly – untreated ADHD is.

Internal resource:
Why Shared Care Must Be Protected

External guideline:
NICE NG87 – ADHD: Diagnosis and Management


What Policymakers Must Do Next

To reduce avoidable harm and cost, ADHD needs to be addressed as a cross-cutting public health condition. Key actions for the review include:

  • Create a National ADHD Shared-Care Standard for GPs and ICBs.
  • Expand assessment capacity for adults, women and marginalised groups.
  • Embed sleep, stress, metabolic and hormonal screening in ADHD pathways.
  • Fund post-diagnostic support, not medication-only care.
  • Recognise ADHD as a public health determinant that drives demand across education, health, justice and social care.

References

1. Epidemiology, Prevalence and Life Course Outcomes

  • Stergiakouli, E., Martin, J., Hamshere, M. et al. (2017). Association between polygenic risk scores for ADHD and educational and cognitive outcomes. International Journal of Epidemiology, 46(2), 421–428.
  • National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (2018, updated 2019). Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder: Diagnosis and Management (NICE NG87).
  • Ronald, A. et al. (2021). How the ADHD polygenic score affects outcomes across the life course: A systematic review. JAACAP, 60(7), 852–876.

2. Social and Economic Impact (Education, Employment, Productivity)

  • Vibert, S. & Wybron, I. (2018). Your Attention Please: The Social and Economic Impact of ADHD. Demos.
  • NBER Working Paper 21680 – Employment and income effects of ADHD.
  • NBER Publication 38036902 – Adult ADHD and reduced earnings estimates.
  • IPPR (2017). Making the Difference: Breaking the Link Between School Exclusion and Social Exclusion.

3. ADHD, Obesity and Metabolic Health

  • Cortese, S. et al. (2016). ADHD and obesity: A systematic review and meta-analysis. American Journal of Psychiatry, 173(1), 34–43.
  • Cortese, S. (2019). Updated evidence on ADHD and obesity. Brain Sciences, 9(10), 256.
  • Garcia-Argibay, M. et al. (2023). ADHD and type 2 diabetes: Meta-analysis and sibling study. Neuroscience & Biobehavioral Reviews, 144, 104993.
  • ADHD Evidence Project (2023). Updated interpretation of ADHD–diabetes risk.

4. Criminality, Justice and Public Safety

  • Lichtenstein, P. et al. (2012). Medication for ADHD and criminality. New England Journal of Medicine, 367, 2006–2014.
  • NEJM Journal Watch (2012). Summary of criminality reduction effects of ADHD medication.

5. Education, Exclusion and NEET

  • Department for Education (2016–2022). National exclusion statistics.
  • ADDISS & UK ADHD Partnership (2017–2022). Reports on ADHD and exclusion.
  • PubMed Research (PMID 26908602). ADHD and increased NEET risk.
  • PMC2697063. Absenteeism and ADHD.

6. Sleep, Circadian Rhythm and ADHD

  • Wajszilber, D., Santiseban, J.A., Gruber, R. (2018). Sleep disorders in ADHD: Impact and management challenges. Nature and Science of Sleep, 10, 453–480.
  • Wynchank, D. et al. (2016–2018). Circadian preference and ADHD in adults.
  • NICE NG87 – Sleep assessment within ADHD pathways.

7. Life Expectancy, Mortality and Long-Term Risks

  • Dalsgaard, S. et al. (2015–2020). ADHD and all-cause mortality. Lancet Psychiatry.
  • UCL (2025). Adult ADHD and reduced life expectancy in UK primary care (press release & study).

8. Economic Costs of ADHD and Related Conditions

  • Demos (2018). Your Attention Please – UK ADHD costings.
  • Centre for Mental Health (2020–2023). Annual mental health cost estimates.
  • Deloitte UK (2022/23). Employer cost of poor mental health (~£51bn).
  • DHSC Obesity Strategy. NHS obesity cost ~£6.5bn.
  • NHS England Diabetes Programme. NHS diabetes cost ~£10bn (~10% of budget).
  • Versus Arthritis (2020). MSK burden (~£5bn).
  • RightCare & Work Foundation. Migraine NHS cost (£1bn) and economic cost (~£9.7bn).
  • Institute of Alcohol Studies. Alcohol harm (~£27bn).
  • Home Office / NAO Drug Strategy. Drug misuse cost (~£20bn).
  • OHID (2023). Gambling harm (~£1.05–1.77bn).
  • IPPR (2017). Cost of exclusion (~£2.1bn).
  • Relationships Foundation (annual). Cost of family breakdown (~£51bn).

9. Additional Advocacy and Policy Sources

  • ADHDadult.uk (2024). Response to LMC recommendations on shared-care cessation.
  • Scottish ADHD Coalition (2018). Commentary on Demos ADHD report.
  • Demos Daily Blog (2018). Follow-up analyses on ADHD socioeconomic impact.
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